UBS asks:

What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 21, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The UK central bank, the Bank of England, has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation (Bank of England, US News & World Report). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, which has risen from 3.50% to start 2023 to 4.50% as of 7 June 2023 (Bank of England - Bank Rate, Bank of England - May 2023 MPC Minutes). The MPC is scheduled to announce rate decisions on 22 June 2023, 3 August 2023, and 21 September 2023 (Bank of England - MPC Schedule).

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The question closed "5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%" with a closing date of 21 September 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 4.50% 0%
4.50% or higher, but lower than 4.75% 0%
4.75% or higher, but lower than 5.00% 0%
5.00% or higher, but lower than 5.25% 0%
5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50% 15%
5.50% or higher 85%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 324
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.217
2.
-0.135
4.
-0.126
5.
-0.103

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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