UBS asks:

What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 21, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The UK central bank, the Bank of England, has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation (Bank of England, US News & World Report). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, which has risen from 3.50% to start 2023 to 4.50% as of 7 June 2023 (Bank of England - Bank Rate, Bank of England - May 2023 MPC Minutes). The MPC is scheduled to announce rate decisions on 22 June 2023, 3 August 2023, and 21 September 2023 (Bank of England - MPC Schedule).

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%" with a closing date of 21 September 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 4.50% 0%
4.50% or higher, but lower than 4.75% 0%
4.75% or higher, but lower than 5.00% 0%
5.00% or higher, but lower than 5.25% 0%
5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50% 15%
5.50% or higher 85%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions older than 6 months: 194
Number of Forecasts 324
Average for questions older than 6 months: 557
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.216621
2.
-0.135108
4.
-0.126153
5.
-0.102737

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username