UBS asks:

How many total federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US in July 2023 and August 2023?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Firearm sales in the US have fallen from record highs during the peak of the pandemic as some states revise gun control laws (US News & World Report, CNBC, ABC News, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data for July 2023 and August 2023 as reported by the FBI once August 2023 data are first available, expected in September 2023 (FBI.gov). In July 2022 and August 2022, the FBI reported a total of 4,922,464 firearm background checks.

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The question closed "Fewer than 4,500,000" with a closing date of 1 September 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 4,500,000 90%
Between 4,500,000 and 4,900,000, inclusive 8%
More than 4,900,000 but fewer than 5,300,000 1%
Between 5,300,000 and 5,700,000, inclusive 0%
More than 5,700,000 but fewer than 6,100,000 0%
6,100,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.215884
2.
-0.172565
3.
-0.158222
4.
-0.156056
5.
-0.099643

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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