When will Yevgeny Prigozhin either cease to be the leader of the Wagner Group or flee Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus?
Closed Aug 23, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Prigozhin is the leader of the Private Military Company Wagner Group, generally known as the Wagner Group, a Russian organization that provides mercenary services to the Russian government and is currently involved in the war in Ukraine (Guardian, Atlantic). Prigozhin has been very public with complaints about Russia's prosecution of the war in Ukraine and at times critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin (US News & World Report, CBS News, Moscow Times). If the Wagner Group is dissolved and/or absorbed into the Russian armed forces, it will be deemed to have ceased to exist and would therefore have no leader. Whether or not Prigozhin has either ceased to be the leader of the Wagner Group or fled Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
The question closed "Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023" with a closing date of 23 August 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Before 9 July 2023||0%|
|Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023||6%|
|Between 9 September 2023 and 8 December 2023||14%|
|Not before 9 December 2023||80%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||129|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 215|
|Number of Forecasts||845|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 605|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|