Jayce asks:

When will Yevgeny Prigozhin either cease to be the leader of the Wagner Group or flee Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 23, 2023 05:00PM UTC

Prigozhin is the leader of the Private Military Company Wagner Group, generally known as the Wagner Group, a Russian organization that provides mercenary services to the Russian government and is currently involved in the war in Ukraine (Guardian, Atlantic). Prigozhin has been very public with complaints about Russia's prosecution of the war in Ukraine and at times critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin (US News & World Report, CBS News, Moscow Times). If the Wagner Group is dissolved and/or absorbed into the Russian armed forces, it will be deemed to have ceased to exist and would therefore have no leader. Whether or not Prigozhin has either ceased to be the leader of the Wagner Group or fled Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023" with a closing date of 23 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 9 July 2023 0%
Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023 6%
Between 9 September 2023 and 8 December 2023 14%
Not before 9 December 2023 80%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 845
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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