As of 16 June 2023, former President Donald Trump is facing criminal charges in two jurisdictions: the state of New York and federal criminal charges in the Southern District of Florida as an investigation continues in Georgia (Manhattan District Attorney, Southern District of Florida, NBC News, Politico). For the purposes of this question, "US jurisdiction" means either the US federal government, including the District of Columbia, or the government of any of the 50 states. The outcome will be determined based on the status of criminal charges as of 8:00PM PT the day before the New Hampshire Republican primary, currently expected in early 2024 (Ballotpedia). The close date for this question will be changed once the official primary date is set. If Trump is deceased during the question's open period, the question will close "0," and criminal charges would be considered to have ceased to be outstanding upon the dismissal of or entry of a verdict on those charges and irrespective of any appeals.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 18 July 2023: The federal government, including the District of Columbia and all federal district courts, is considered a single jurisdiction.

NOTE 15 November 2023: NH Secretary of State announced today that the NH primary will take place on 23 January 2024.

The question closed "3" with a closing date of 23 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.