lbiii asks:

How many hectares (ha) will be consumed by wildfires in Canada in 2023?

Started Jun 23, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 07:55PM UTC

Canada has already seen a devastating start to the wildfire season in 2023 (NASDAQ, CTV, CBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) in its "Canada Report" for 2023, expected in early 2024 (CIFFC - Annual Reports). In 2022, wildland fires consumed 1,656,504 hectares in Canada (CIFFC - Canada Report 2022, see page 15). A "hectare" is a metric unit of measure for area equivalent to 2.471 acres (Britannica - Hectare). Additional periodic data are available from CIFFC (CIFFC National Fire Situation Report).

This question is a companion to the original #2893 launched on 26 May 2023.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "More than 12.75 million" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 7.50 million 0%
Between 7.50 million and 8.25 million, inclusive 0%
More than 8.25 million but fewer than 9.00 million 0%
Between 9.00 million and 9.75 million, inclusive 0%
More than 9.75 million but fewer than 10.50 million 0%
Between 10.50 million and 11.25 million, inclusive 0%
More than 11.25 million but fewer than 12.00 million 7%
Between 12.00 million and 12.75 million, inclusive 2%
More than 12.75 million 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username