Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023?

Started Jun 23, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 23, 2023 07:01AM UTC

In May 2023, North Korea failed in an attempt to launch a spy satellite, but plans to try again (NPR, AP). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (38 North). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 23 September 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.31%
No 99.69%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 89
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 263
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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