Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Jun 30, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Fears remain that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus that is now providing sanctuary to the Wagner Group (AP, Al-Arabiya, Politico, Belta). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" and "Assessed Russian Control" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.15%
No 99.85%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 83
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 242
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001
2.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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