Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) begin trading on a US exchange before 30 December 2023?

Started Jun 30, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 30, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Attempts to create a bitcoin ETF in the US continue, with asset manager BlackRock making an application with the SEC in June 2023 (Investopedia, US News & World Report, Yahoo). ETFs for bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.25%
No 99.75%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 231
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.095
2.
-0.095
3.
-0.095
4.
-0.095
5.
-0.094

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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