To which political party will the next prime minister of Slovakia belong after the 2023 parliamentary elections?

Started Jun 30, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As Slovaks prepare to go to the polls in an early election, there are concerns that pro-Russian leaders may win control of the country's parliament, the National Council (Politico, Slovak Spectator, Politico - Slovakia Poll of Polls, France 24). The next general election is scheduled for 30 September 2023 (AP). The question will be suspended on 29 September 2022 and the outcome determined once a new prime minister has been appointed by the president of Slovakia (Slovak Constitution, see Article 102(1)(g)). If no new prime minister has been appointed and a new election is called, the question would close "None of the above." The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.

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The question closed "Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer – sociálna demokracia)" with a closing date of 25 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer – sociálna demokracia) 75%
Progressive Slovakia (Progresívne Slovensko) 22%
Voice - Social Democracy (HLAS - sociálna demokracia) 2%
None of the above 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.235
4.
-0.102
5.
-0.09

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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