Before 10 November 2023, will the US impose new export restrictions that would prohibit the export of Nvidia's current A800 microchips to Chinese entities or China without a license?

Started Jul 07, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 10, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The Wall Street Journal reported in late June 2023 that the US was considering imposing new restrictions on the export of microchips used in, among other things, the development of artificial intelligence (Wall Street Journal, US News & World Report, The Verge). For the purposes of this question, "Chinese entities" are those on the "Entity List" maintained by the Commerce Department (Code of Federal Regulations - Entity List, see "CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF," Bureau of Industry and Security). "Current A800 microchips" are those with the specifications laid out here as of the launch of this question: VideoCardz. Restrictions would be considered imposed upon the effective date of a rule published by the US government (e.g., Bureau of Industry and Security - Press Release 7 October 2022). An outright ban on the export of A800 microchips to all Chinese firms would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10%
No 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 212
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.489
3.
-0.465
4.
-0.43
5.
-0.36

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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