Before 10 November 2023, will the US impose new export restrictions that would prohibit the export of Nvidia's current A800 microchips to Chinese entities or China without a license?
Closed Nov 10, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The Wall Street Journal reported in late June 2023 that the US was considering imposing new restrictions on the export of microchips used in, among other things, the development of artificial intelligence (Wall Street Journal, US News & World Report, The Verge). For the purposes of this question, "Chinese entities" are those on the "Entity List" maintained by the Commerce Department (Code of Federal Regulations - Entity List, see "CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF," Bureau of Industry and Security). "Current A800 microchips" are those with the specifications laid out here as of the launch of this question: VideoCardz. Restrictions would be considered imposed upon the effective date of a rule published by the US government (e.g., Bureau of Industry and Security - Press Release 7 October 2022). An outright ban on the export of A800 microchips to all Chinese firms would count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 November 2023.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 10% | |
No | 90% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 51 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193 | |
Number of Forecasts | 212 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554 |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |