Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 4 August 2023?
Closed Aug 04, 2023 07:01AM UTC
The Turkish lira reached record lows against the US dollar since President Erdogan won reelection in late May 2023 (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the US by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 4 August 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 22.00 | 0% | |
| Between 22.00 and 24.00, inclusive | 0% | |
| Higher than 24.00 but lower than 26.00 | 3% | |
| Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive | 93% | |
| Higher than 28.00 but lower than 30.00 | 3% | |
| Between 30.00 and 32.00, inclusive | 1% | |
| Higher than 32.00 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 59 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 203 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 480 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
