Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 4 August 2023?

Started Jul 18, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 04, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The Turkish lira reached record lows against the US dollar since President Erdogan won reelection in late May 2023 (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the US by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").

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The question closed "Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 4 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 22.00 0%
Between 22.00 and 24.00, inclusive 0%
Higher than 24.00 but lower than 26.00 3%
Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive 93%
Higher than 28.00 but lower than 30.00 3%
Between 30.00 and 32.00, inclusive 1%
Higher than 32.00 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 203
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.034652
2.
-0.031466
3.
-0.029772
4.
-0.022021
5.
-0.019188

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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