Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Which Major League Baseball team will be in first place in the National League's West Division (NL West) as of 6 August 2023?

Started Jul 18, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 05, 2023 04:55AM UTC

The NL West was the most competitive division going into the All-star Break, with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers tied for first and the Giants 2.5 games behind (Arizona Sports). The question will be suspended on 5 August 2023 and the outcome determined using division standings data as reported by ESPN upon the conclusion of all games on 6 August 2023 (ESPN). A game that commences on 6 August 2022 will count toward the outcome regardless of when that game ends unless play is postponed to a future date.

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The question closed "Los Angeles Dodgers" with a closing date of 4 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Arizona Diamondbacks 0%
Colorado Rockies 0%
Los Angeles Dodgers 98%
San Diego Padres 0%
San Francisco Giants 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 252
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.139406
2.
-0.118676
3.
-0.113782
4.
-0.108571
5.
-0.093441

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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