Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many total travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first week (1st - 7th) of August 2023?

Started Jul 18, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 07, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While total air passenger traffic has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry is struggling to keep up with demand (CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA).

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The question closed "More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million" with a closing date of 8 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 16.6 million 2%
Between 16.6 million and 17.4 million, inclusive 6%
More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million 61%
Between 18.2 million and 19.0 million, inclusive 26%
More than 19.0 million but fewer than 19.8 million 3%
19.8 million or more 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 58
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 167
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 480
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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