Before 1 January 2024, will American journalist Evan Gershkovich leave Russia?

Started Jul 14, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, a claim he denies (ABC News). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (The Hill).

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NOTE 17 July 2023: Gershkovich must leave Russia alive to count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 212
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.04463
2.
-0.034981
3.
-0.03388
4.
-0.033678
5.
-0.03056

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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