MrLittleTexas asks:

Before 28 January 2024, will West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024?

Started Jul 14, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 28, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Manchin has repeatedly floated the prospect that he may run for president in 2024 (NBC News, The Hill, Politico, NY1). Persons running for federal office in the US must register with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) upon raising or spending more than $5,000 in contributions or expenditures (FEC - Registration, FEC - Candidates). The question would close early if Manchin publicly announces that he will not run for US president in 2024.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 28 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 126
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 454
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username