When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Amid reports and suggestions for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the war continues (AP, Anadolu Agency, NBC News). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
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The question closed "Not before 1 July 2024" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 1 January 2024 | 0% | |
Between 1 January 2024 and 30 June 2024 | 1% | |
Not before 1 July 2024 | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 235 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193 | |
Number of Forecasts | 919 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 556 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |