Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly engage in physical combat in an officiated setting before 1 February 2024?

Started Jul 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

On 20 June 2023, Twitter owner Elon Musk apparently challenged Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to a cage match (Twitter, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, Politico). The match/fight involving some form of physical combat must be viewable by the public (e.g., broadcast, physically present audience, pay-per-view) in real time with some form of official (e.g., referee, umpire) present and in putative control of the event to count. The physical combat must involve direct contact, and such contact made while wearing gloves, armor, or other gear/clothing would count. Physical combat with the use of hand-held implements (e.g., clubs, axes, swords, spears, morning stars, flails, lances, hammers) would count, though combat solely with the use of projectile weapons (e.g., bows, crossbows, firearms, slings) would not count. Whether the match/fight is staged or scripted is immaterial, and the involvement of an actual cage is not necessary to count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 2.83% +0.00% -0.36% -1.19%
No 97.17% +0.00% +0.36% +1.19%

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