MrLittleTexas asks:

When will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) vote to end its strike?

Started Jul 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 27, 2023 12:00AM UTC

The WGA's contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, a trade group that represents studios and streamers, expired on 1 May 2023 and triggered a strike by writers (WGA, ABC7, Deadline). The last WGA strike ended in 2008 after union members voted to return to work after striking for 100 days (NBC News). The question would close upon the vote to end the strike irrespective of when the strike would actually end.

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NOTE 27 September 2023: The relevant vote is that of the membership, not the boards.

After continued reading and extensive deliberation, we have made a decision to resolve this question as of the WGA announcement that its boards voted to end the strike. This decision turns on the meaning of "WGA." While we referenced the vote by the membership to end the strike in 2008, the question itself did not clearly specify WGA membership (our fault). And as we have a "vote to end its strike" by the WGA (see Article IX(C)(1)), the question closed "Before 1 October 2023" with a closing date of 26 September 2023.

What's also key here is the timing. No forecasts entered on or after 26 September 2023 will count, per usual. Since the question resolved before the subsequent clarifications were offered, those clarifications are moot.

We apologize for any headaches on this question for the past couple of days. We endeavor to keep our questions crystal clear, but fell short in this instance.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 October 2023 63%
Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023 34%
Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024 1%
Between 1 February 2024 and 31 March 2024 0%
Not before 1 April 2024 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 186
Number of Forecasts 257
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 479
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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