Kinnaj asks:

Will Donald Trump cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president before 15 January 2024?

Started Jul 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Former President Trump announced in November 2022 that he was running for president amid a slew of legal troubles (US News & World Report, BBC). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Trump no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 248
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 665
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005
5.
-0.005

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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