Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?

Started Aug 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

A military coup in the West African country of Niger in late July 2023 has raised fears of greater instability in the conflict-torn region (AP, NBC News, France 24). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Niger" under "Western Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 December 2023. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 47 total fatalities in April 2023 (22 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 14 attributed to "Battles," 8 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," 3 attributed to "Strategic developments," and none attributed to "Riots" or "Protests").

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The question closed "More than 250 but fewer than 500" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 100 0%
Between 100 and 250, inclusive 1%
More than 250 but fewer than 500 94%
Between 500 and 1,000, inclusive 5%
More than 1,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 24
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 134
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.056506
3.
-0.046637
4.
-0.045018

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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