Foxes ask:

Will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel before 1 September 2024?

Started Aug 11, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Reports indicate that the US is negotiating an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would include the latter normalizing relations with the former (AP, Yahoo, Al Jazeera). Various Arab states recognized or agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 (e.g., NY Times, CNN, NPR, CNN).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 2 May 2024: Thank you for your inquiry. The question is concerned with the date of the announcement by Saudi Arabia, irrespective of when the normalization will occur. Conditional announcements (e.g., if Israel does X, if the US does Y) will not count. Please see the examples in the question description for further illustration of what will count.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 14.94% -0.06% +1.76% +0.76%
No 85.06% +0.06% -1.76% -0.76%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username