CBETANT asks:
When will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device?
Started
Aug 11, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 11, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Closing Aug 11, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Amid an flurry of ballistic missile tests in 2023, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (NBC News, Al Jazeera). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 11 December 2023 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Between 11 December 2023 and 10 April 2024 | 2.96% | -0.04% | -0.52% | -1.42% |
| Between 11 April 2024 and 10 August 2024 | 15.28% | -0.04% | -1.80% | -5.55% |
| Not before 11 August 2024 | 81.76% | +0.08% | +2.32% | +6.97% |