When will there next be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

Started Aug 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Amid a deal to relocate American prisoners in Iran, the US is warning vessels to stay away from Iranian waters to avoid seizure by Iranian forces as tensions regarding the country's nuclear program continue (AP, NBC News, US Naval Institute, Times of Israel). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count, and a fatality must occur during the question's open period to count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 January 2024 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 May 2024 2.00% 0% 0% -2.79%
Between 1 June 2024 and 31 October 2024 9.00% 0% 0% -1.16%
Not before 1 November 2024 89.00% 0% 0% +3.95%

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