What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?

Started Aug 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Inflation in the US has been cooling in 2023 but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (US News & World Report, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for November 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in December 2023 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percentage Change from Year Ago"). For December 2022, the change was 6.44494%.

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The question closed "Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Up by less than 1.600% or down 1%
Up by between 1.600% and 2.200%, inclusive 3%
Up by more than 2.200% but less than 2.800% 8%
Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive 55%
Up by more than 3.400% but less than 4.000% 27%
Up by between 4.000% and 4.600%, inclusive 5%
Up by more than 4.600% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.110513
2.
-0.095086
3.
-0.077837
4.
-0.077171
5.
-0.069115

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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