What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?
Closed Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Inflation in the US has been cooling in 2023 but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (US News & World Report, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for November 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in December 2023 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percentage Change from Year Ago"). For December 2022, the change was 6.44494%.
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The question closed "Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Up by less than 1.600% or down | 1% | |
| Up by between 1.600% and 2.200%, inclusive | 3% | |
| Up by more than 2.200% but less than 2.800% | 8% | |
| Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive | 55% | |
| Up by more than 3.400% but less than 4.000% | 27% | |
| Up by between 4.000% and 4.600%, inclusive | 5% | |
| Up by more than 4.600% | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 69 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 306 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
