What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 15 December 2023?

Started Aug 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 15, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury is a major benchmark for finance in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 14 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected the following week (FRED). For 14 August 2023, the yield was 4.19%.

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The question closed "Higher than 3.60% but lower than 4.00%" with a closing date of 15 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.20% 0%
Between 3.20% and 3.60%, inclusive 1%
Higher than 3.60% but lower than 4.00% 53%
Between 4.00% and 4.40%, inclusive 45%
Higher than 4.40% but lower than 4.80% 1%
Between 4.80% and 5.20%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 5.20% but lower than 5.60% 0%
5.60% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 606
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.315428
2.
-0.278125
3.
-0.266208
4.
-0.195817
5.
-0.194491

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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