What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 30 November 2023?

Started Aug 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 30, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Mortgage rates have hovered around multi-decade highs in mid-2023, but many banks and financial institutions expect them to fall in the near term (Yahoo). The question will be suspended 29 November 2023 and the outcome determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 1 December 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.49%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 29 October 2023: There was an error as to the suspend date in the question description. The question will be suspended on 29 November 2023.


The question closed "Between 7.20% and 7.50%, inclusive" with a closing date of 30 November 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 6.00% 0%
Between 6.00% and 6.30%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 6.30% but lower than 6.60% 0%
Between 6.60% and 6.90%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 6.90% but lower than 7.20% 21%
Between 7.20% and 7.50%, inclusive 76%
More than 7.50% 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 541
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.128
3.
-0.074
4.
-0.072
5.
-0.068

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username