What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for 2024?

Started Aug 25, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Youth unemployment, major debt headwinds, and other factors are leading many observers to dim their expectations for China's economic growth in the near future (CNN, Guardian, ABC Australia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using IMF real GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2025, which is expected in April 2025 (IMF). At the IMF website, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database," then click "By Countries." In the reporting tool page, 1) select "EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ASIA," 2) click the "CLEAR ALL" button, then "China," then click "CONTINUE," 3) select "Gross Domestic Product, constant prices PERCENT CHANGE," then click "CONTINUE," 4) set the "Start Year" and "End Year" as you wish, then press the "PREPARE REPORT" button. China's GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2022 was estimated to be 2.988% according to the April 2023 report (IMF - World Economic Outlook April 2023).

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The question closed "Higher by between 4.50% and 6.00%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by more than 1.50% 0%
Lower by between 0.00% and 1.50%, inclusive 0%
Higher by more than 0.00% but less than 1.50% 0%
Higher by between 1.50% and 3.00%, inclusive 0%
Higher by more than 3.00% but less than 4.50% 6%
Higher by between 4.50% and 6.00%, inclusive 93%
Higher by more than 6.00% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 176
Number of Forecasts 305
Average for questions older than 6 months: 516
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.094557
2.
-0.08954
3.
-0.087752
4.
-0.068966
5.
-0.054957

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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