Before 15 January 2024, will a US court rule or state-level electoral authority announce that Donald Trump is ineligible to become president pursuant to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?

Started Sep 01, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 19, 2023 11:00PM UTC

As the 2024 election cycle approaches, there are calls to consider whether Donald Trump is barred from the office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution due to actions on 6 January 2021 in Washington, DC (ABC News, NBC News, Politico). Section 3 states that no person who held federal or state office who "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" against the US can hold any federal or state office (Cornell). Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement are immaterial. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state, and a ruling in either a state or federal court would count.

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NOTE 3 September 2023: For the purpose of this question, a "US court" includes state courts.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 19 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 15%
No 85%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 546
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.919682
2.
-0.890586
4.
-0.880449
5.
-0.880449

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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