Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Chinese property developer Country Garden default on any bond payments before 1 January 2024?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 18, 2023 03:00PM UTC

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, generally referred to simply as Country Garden, is one of the few major property developers in China to have not defaulted on debt, but it has many bond payments due in the near term (US News & World Report, CNN, Yahoo Finance). The use of "grace periods" to delay payment and creditor-approved bond restructuring would not count (Investopedia - Grace Period). Default by its business segments or wholly-owned subsidiaries (e.g., Country Garden Real Estate) would count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 18 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 82%
No 18%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 153
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 471
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.288
2.
-0.288
4.
-0.252

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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