Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Chinese property developer Country Garden default on any bond payments before 1 January 2024?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, generally referred to simply as Country Garden, is one of the few major property developers in China to have not defaulted on debt, but it has many bond payments due in the near term (US News & World Report, CNN, Yahoo Finance). The use of "grace periods" to delay payment and creditor-approved bond restructuring would not count (Investopedia - Grace Period). Default by its business segments or wholly-owned subsidiaries (e.g., Country Garden Real Estate) would count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 57.80% +3.20%
No 42.20% -3.20%

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