Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Chinese property developer Country Garden default on any bond payments before 1 January 2024?
Closed Oct 18, 2023 03:00PM UTC
Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, generally referred to simply as Country Garden, is one of the few major property developers in China to have not defaulted on debt, but it has many bond payments due in the near term (US News & World Report, CNN, Yahoo Finance). The use of "grace periods" to delay payment and creditor-approved bond restructuring would not count (Investopedia - Grace Period). Default by its business segments or wholly-owned subsidiaries (e.g., Country Garden Real Estate) would count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 18 October 2023.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 82% | |
No | 18% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 49 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 153 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |