Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the full US House of Representatives vote on impeaching President Joe Biden before 1 January 2024?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy announced 12 September 2023 that he was directing committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden (Twitter, Axios). Only votes by the full House of Representatives will count (Congressional Research Service). The question will not close early upon a full House vote to not impeach President Biden.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the full House will vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden 0%
Yes, but the full House will not vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 276
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.019096
2.
-0.019096
3.
-0.018775
5.
-0.01868

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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