How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 29 September 2023 and 30 September 2024?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank shook the financial system in the beginning of 2023, and concerns over more potential turmoil remain (FDIC - Bank Failures in Brief, CNN, Guardian, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, "the largest commercial banks in the US" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of "Large Commercial Banks" as of 30 June 2023 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "June 30, 2023"). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome (e.g., FDIC). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
0 45.07% +0.07% +0.07% +13.07%
1 21.86% -0.07% -0.07% +1.09%
2 or 3 16.43% +0.07% +0.07% -1.57%
4 or more 16.64% -0.07% -0.07% -12.59%

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