How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 29 September 2023 and 30 September 2024?
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank shook the financial system in the beginning of 2023, and concerns over more potential turmoil remain (FDIC - Bank Failures in Brief, CNN, Guardian, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, "the largest commercial banks in the US" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of "Large Commercial Banks" as of 30 June 2023 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "June 30, 2023"). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome (e.g., FDIC). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).
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The question closed "1" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
0 | 7% | |
1 | 85% | |
2 or 3 | 7% | |
4 or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 51 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193 | |
Number of Forecasts | 303 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 556 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |