Kinnaj and Jayce ask:

Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?

Started Oct 04, 2023 08:45PM UTC
Closed Oct 25, 2023 05:56PM UTC

After the House of Representatives voted to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, the race is on to pick his replacement in the closely divided body (NBC News, BBC). While the Speaker of the House has always been a member of the House of Representatives, such is not required by the Constitution (Congressional Research Service). If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.

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NOTE 18 October 2023: A new Speaker elected with a time-limited term would count. A vote to expand the powers of the Speaker of the House Pro Tempore alone would not count.


The question closed "Another current Republican Representative" with a closing date of 25 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Rep. Tom Emmer (MN) 5%
Rep. Garret Graves (LA) 0%
Rep. Jim Jordan (OH) 1%
Rep. Patrick McHenry (NC) 5%
Rep. Steve Scalise (LA) 1%
Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY) 2%
Another current Republican Representative 82%
Someone else 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 634
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 470
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.458
3.
-0.416
4.
-0.379
5.
-0.371

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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