dli_md asks:
How many novel drugs will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for rare (aka "orphan") diseases in 2024?
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Over the past decade, the percentage of novel drug approvals for rare diseases (diseases that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the US) has increased (FDA - Rare Disease Day 2023, Pharmaceutical Technology). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the FDA for novel drug approvals in 2024 (FDA - New Drugs). In 2022, the FDA approved 20 novel drugs for rare diseases (FDA - New Drug Therapy Approvals 2022).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 12 | 9.58% | 0% | 0% | -0.09% |
| Between 12 and 19 | 15.25% | 0% | 0% | +0.92% |
| Between 20 and 27 | 41.17% | 0% | 0% | -1.33% |
| Between 28 and 35 | 24.33% | 0% | 0% | +0.50% |
| More than 35 | 9.67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |