cosaib asks:

Will Nikol Pashinyan cease to be the prime minister of Armenia before 6 February 2024?

Started Oct 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 06, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Azerbaijan's ultimate conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority, in September 2023 has put great pressure on the government in Yerevan (Politico, Al Jazeera, NEWS.am). Pashinyan staying on in a caretaker prime minister role subsequent with his resignation as prime minister would still count as Pashinyan ceasing to be prime minister (Constitution of Armenia, see Article 149, France 24).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 31
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.118777
2.
-0.118777
3.
-0.114992
4.
-0.104184
5.
-0.102603

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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