Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it has executed a military strike within the territory of the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or the West Bank before 30 October 2023?

Started Oct 08, 2023 11:30PM UTC
Closed Oct 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC

After Hamas' attack in southern Israel in early October 2023, the US has announced that it is sending naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean (AP, Defense.gov). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on or over pertinent territory. A cyberattack alone would not count, and a strike in or over Gazan or Lebanese airspace or territorial waters would count.

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NOTE 12 October 2023: Any acknowledgment of a strike that would satisfy all of the elements of the question and conditions in the question description, including the discharge or detonation of a weapon, would count, irrespective of whether members of the US armed forces were "on the ground." If the US publicly acknowledges that it sent forces into a pertinent area without clearly stating whether weapons were discharged or detonated by US forces, credible open source reporting would be used to determine whether the US did indeed discharge or detonate a weapon.

NOTE 20 October 2023: US forces firing weapons defensively against drones or missiles that are in flight (i.e., to prevent them from reaching their target) in and of itself would not count, irrespective of the putative target of the drones or missiles.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 312
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004173
2.
-0.004164
3.
-0.004164
4.
-0.004164

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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