Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles before 13 December 2023?

Started Oct 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 13, 2023 08:01AM UTC

As Israel is fighting Hamas and others in Gaza, there are fears that conflict could spread to include Lebanon, specifically Iran-backed Hezbollah (BBC, CNN, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 148
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 517
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.068198
2.
-0.068136
3.
-0.065723
4.
-0.063618
5.
-0.061434

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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