When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month?

Started Oct 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The US labor market continued to add jobs in September 2023 despite ongoing fears that rising interest rates will slow hiring (CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). Subsequent revisions would be immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before October 2024" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Between October 2023 and December 2023 0%
Between January 2024 and March 2024 0%
Between April 2024 and June 2024 0%
Between July 2024 and September 2024 10%
Not before October 2024 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 259
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.045743
3.
-0.033075
4.
-0.028807
5.
-0.024487

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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