What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The resilience of the US consumer is in focus as interest rates rise and US credit card debt is at record levels (ABC News, NBC News, PYMNTS). Charge-offs are debts that banks "write off," or record that they don't believe they will be repaid (Investopedia - Charge-off). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once first released, expected in August 2024 (FRED).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower than 2.50% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 2.50% and 3.25%, inclusive 0% 0% 0% -0.10%
Higher than 3.25% but lower than 4.00% 3.70% -1.50% -2.40% -6.00%
Between 4.00% and 4.75%, inclusive 71.40% +1.40% +9.70% +10.00%
Higher than 4.75% but lower than 5.50% 24.30% +0.10% -7.30% -3.90%
Between 5.50% and 6.25%, inclusive 0.60% 0% 0% 0%
Higher than 6.25% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username