Before 20 November 2023, will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 20, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Pressure is mounting on Egypt, which is the only country other than Israel to share a border with the Gaza Strip, to allow refugees from Gaza into the country (ABC News, NBC News, Voice of America). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count.

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NOTE 4 November 2023: An individual's familial relations (blood or marriage) to a foreign national of a UN member state is considered "individualized circumstances."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 185
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.047248
3.
-0.043861
4.
-0.04241
5.
-0.03909

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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