When will the US Secretary of Defense and the Minister of National Defense of China next hold a bilateral meeting?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 16, 2024 08:00PM UTC

While US Defense Secretary Austin has met with Chinese defense ministers in recent times at multilateral events, China rebuffed efforts by the US to hold a bilateral meeting between the two as recently as May 2023 (NBC News, US Naval Institute). As of the launch of this question, the incumbent US Secretary of Defense was Lloyd Austin, and the Defense Minister of China was Li Shangfu (Defense.gov, China Ministry of National Defense). As of the launch of this question, Li had not been seen publicly since late August 2023 (CNN). A meeting held virtually (e.g., phone call, video call) or in concert with another event (e.g., G20 summit) would count so long as a meeting is held separately with the two leaders among themselves and their own respective entourages (e.g., US Naval Institute), and a meeting between the Secretary and Minister when either or both hold the position in an acting capacity due to the position being otherwise vacant, including due to incapacitation, would count.

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The question closed "Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024" with a closing date of 16 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2024 0%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024 2%
Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024 24%
Not before 1 July 2024 74%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.124343
2.
-0.096142
3.
-0.061239
4.
-0.060806
5.
-0.054801

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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