Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 1 May 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Nov 03, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The border between Ukraine and Belarus has been relatively quiet in 2023, but fears remain that enemy forces may again invade the north of Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus (Yahoo, Government of Ukraine - Center for National Resistance, Belta). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" and "Assessed Russian Control" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 114
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 341
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002434
2.
-0.002434
4.
-0.00243
5.
-0.00243

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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