As Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, there are repeated calls for a ceasefire that Israel says it would entertain if all of its hostages were released (Axios). Whether the ceasefire is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 19 November 2023: The question is concerned with a ceasefire, that being a cessation of all hostilities. Any change in the status of the conflict that includes a cessation of all hostilities, the exact language used by the parties notwithstanding, would count so long as all elements of the question are fulfilled.

The question closed "Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023" with a closing date of 23 November 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.