When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?

Started Nov 07, 2023 03:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 24, 2023 05:00AM UTC

As Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, there are repeated calls for a ceasefire that Israel says it would entertain if all of its hostages were released (Axios). Whether the ceasefire is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) would not count.

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NOTE 19 November 2023: The question is concerned with a ceasefire, that being a cessation of all hostilities. Any change in the status of the conflict that includes a cessation of all hostilities, the exact language used by the parties notwithstanding, would count so long as all elements of the question are fulfilled.


The question closed "Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023" with a closing date of 23 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 14 November 2023 0%
Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023 75%
Between 28 November 2023 and 11 December 2023 8%
Between 12 December 2023 and 25 December 2023 7%
Not before 26 December 2023 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 101
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 296
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.86203
2.
-0.75203
3.
-0.702077
4.
-0.676939
5.
-0.61358

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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