What will be the "net sympathy" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?

Started Nov 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 07, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Support for Israel among Americans remains high, but it has slipped among different segments of the population (NPR, Gallup - 16 March 2023). The question will be suspended on 6 February 2024 and the outcome determined using survey data as reported by Gallup, expected in the first quarter of 2024 (Gallup - Middle East). The "net sympathy" will be calculated by subtracting the "more sympathetic" percentage for Palestinians from the "more sympathetic" percentage for Israelis. In 2023, "more sympathies" for Israel was 54%, and for Palestinians 31%, creating a "net sympathy" for Israelis of 23 points. The full question posed by Gallup has historically been, "In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?" to which 54% responded "Israelis" in 2023.

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The question closed "At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points" with a closing date of 21 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 10 points or negative 12%
At least 10 points, but fewer than 20 points 36%
At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points 44%
At least 30 points, but fewer than 40 points 7%
40 points for more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 241
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.191768
2.
-0.18464
3.
-0.161108
4.
-0.15719
5.
-0.152263

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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