The Economist asks:

In NetChoice, LLC v. Paxton, will the Supreme Court rule that the viewpoint-based censorship restrictions (Section 7) in Texas' social media censorship law (HB 20) complies with the First Amendment?

Started Nov 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 02:20PM UTC

The Supreme Court agreed to hear challenges to House Bill 20 (HB 20), a Texas law that, among other things, prohibits qualifying social media companies from censoring users based on the viewpoint of their expression (Economist, Texas.gov, Oyez, LegiScan - HB 20, see Section 7). The district court issued a preliminary injunction barring enforcement of the law, which the Fifth Circuit reversed and NetChoice appealed to the Supreme Court (SCOTUSblog, Politico, The Verge). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." If the Court rules that Section 7 facially complies with the First Amendment and/or "as applied" to all parties of the case, the question will close "Yes," regardless of the potential of other future challenges (Bona Law). The outcome of Moody v. NetChoice, LLC, a companion case out of Florida, is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 36%
No 64%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 284
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 545
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.209059
2.
-0.209059
4.
-0.208724
5.
-0.207821

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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