Will COP28 result in an agreement that includes explicit language committing to phase out all fossil fuels for energy production by a specific date?

Started Nov 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) is scheduled to be held from 30 November 2023 through 12 December 2023 in Dubai, UAE (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP28.com). Advocates have been pushing for a commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, but no such commitment has been adopted (Earth.org, Amnesty International, UN.org). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2023 and the outcome determined once all decisions from the summit have been published. The specific date is immaterial, but it must be a fixed point in the future, whether it be a specific day, a month, or a year. A fixed term (e.g., within 50 years of this meeting) would also count. The agreement must be adopted by "consensus" to count (Climalia).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 80
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 155
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.016372
2.
-0.016372
4.
-0.01634
5.
-0.01634

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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