When will the United States announce the imposition of sanctions on any Israeli or Israelis for involvement in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank?

Started Nov 20, 2023 10:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 05, 2023 06:28PM UTC

US officials have stated that they are considering imposing sanctions against Israeli West Bank settlers associated with violence against Palestinians (Politico, The Hill, Axios). For the purposes of this question, any sanctions that would limit an Israeli citizen's ability to visit the US or engage in commerce with the US would count. The mere announcement of a framework outlining who may be eligible to be sanctioned would not count, and the date the sanctions would take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Before 12 December 2023" with a closing date of 5 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 12 December 2023 6%
Between 12 December 2023 and 1 January 2024 2%
Between 2 January 2024 and 22 January 2024 5%
Not before 23 January 2024 87%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 89
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 137
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.377147
2.
-1.375756
4.
-1.277907
5.
-0.957342

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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