When will Israel publicly announce that all Israeli citizens captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023 have either been freed or are dead?

Started Nov 27, 2023 06:30PM UTC
Closed Apr 16, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Hamas and Israel completed an initial hostage/prisoner exchanges in late November 2023 (France 24). As of 27 November 2023, it is believed that 183 hostages were still being held by Hamas and others in Gaza as negotiations continue (Times of Israel, ABC News). Israel announcing that a hostage or hostages are presumed dead would count as to those particular hostages, and whether an Israeli citizen holds dual citizenship is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 16 April 2024" with a closing date of 16 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 12 December 2023 0%
Between 12 December 2023 and 1 January 2024 0%
Between 2 January 2024 and 29 January 2024 0%
Between 30 January 2024 and 4 March 2024 0%
Between 5 March 2024 and 15 April 2024 0%
Not before 16 April 2024 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 107
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 410
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.047684
2.
-0.047684
3.
-0.047385
4.
-0.04662
5.
-0.04662

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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