The Economist asks:

Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024?

Started Nov 27, 2023 06:30PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As global tensions rise among nuclear powers, observers are concerned about the prospect of renewed nuclear weapons testing and a new arms race (Economist, AP, Politico, Arms Control Association). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). Whether China, Russia, and/or the US has detonated a nuclear device in their respective territories will be determined using credible open source reporting. A detonation by China, Russia, or the US must occur within that country's internationally recognized boundaries (including territorial waters and airspace) to count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 7.97% +0.04% -0.26% -1.69%
No 92.03% -0.04% +0.26% +1.69%

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