What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2024?

Started Dec 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Inflation in the US has been cooling in 2023 but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (CNBC, Investopedia - CPI). The question will be suspended on 29 February 2024 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for February 2024 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in March 2024 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the change for February 2023 was 5.98644%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Up by more than 3.000% but less than 3.600%" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Up by less than 1.200% or down 0%
Up by between 1.200% and 1.800%, inclusive 5%
Up by more than 1.800% but less than 2.400% 4%
Up by between 2.400% and 3.000%, inclusive 39%
Up by more than 3.000% but less than 3.600% 51%
Up by between 3.600% and 4.200%, inclusive 1%
Up by more than 4.200% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 73
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 260
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.121276
2.
-0.111532
3.
-0.105129
4.
-0.105028
5.
-0.104468

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username