What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 22 March 2024?

Started Dec 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 22, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury is a major benchmark for finance in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 21 March 2024 and the outcome determined using US Treasury data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected the following week (FRED). On 22 November 2023, the yield was 4.42%.

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The question closed "Between 4.10% and 4.40%, inclusive" with a closing date of 22 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 2.80% 0%
Between 2.80% and 3.20%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 3.20% but lower than 3.50% 0%
Between 3.50% and 3.80%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 3.80% but lower than 4.10% 5%
Between 4.10% and 4.40%, inclusive 88%
Higher than 4.40% but lower than 4.70% 7%
Between 4.70% and 5.00%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 5.00% but lower than 5.40% 0%
5.40% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 79
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 460
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.124121
2.
-0.118936
3.
-0.079257
4.
-0.065122
5.
-0.06129

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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